New Delhi: Researchers have developed an innovative AI-based mortality calculator that can estimate the proximity of an individual’s death. Published in Lancet Digital Health, this study highlights how AI-powered electrocardiograms (ECGs) can predict future health problems and mortality risk. However, this technology is not yet part of standard medical practice.
Presenting AIR: The AI-ECG risk estimator
The AI-ECG Risk Estimator, or AIRE, aims to address the shortcomings of current prediction models that do not provide clear guidance for individual patients. These existing models are often complicated, lack clear explanations, and do not align well with biological realities. The researchers behind AIRE have created a new tool designed to overcome these limitations.
In addition to predicting mortality, AIRE is able to predict future heart failure, which occurs when the heart can no longer pump efficiently. Surprisingly, the system can predict this condition accurately in almost eight out of ten cases. “We sought to address these limitations of previous AI-ECG approaches by developing the AI-ECG risk estimation (AIRE) platform,” the researchers wrote.
The program is scheduled to undergo trials in two UK National Health Service hospitals starting in mid-2025. Experts anticipate it could become a standard tool across the health service within five years, which would allow healthcare providers to offer more personalized care.
How does it work?
AIRE uses a comprehensive data set of 1.16 million ECG test results from 189,539 patients to inform its predictions. This extensive training has allowed him to detect future serious heart rhythm problems in three quarters (76%) of cases and identify atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (in which the arteries narrow and restrict blood flow) in 70% of cases .
The system will not only provide diagnoses to doctors, but will also describe a range of health risksallowing early intervention and disease prevention. For example, if the AIRE system indicates that a patient is at high risk for a specific heart rhythm problem, healthcare providers can implement more aggressive preventive measures.
Dr. Arunashis Sau, Academic Clinical Professor at Imperial College LondonThe National Heart and Lung Institute and specialist cardiology registrar at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, stated: “We cardiologists use our expertise and standard guidelines when analyzing ECGs, classifying them into ‘normal’ and ‘abnormal’ patterns for “However, the AI model detects much more subtle details, so it can ‘detect’ problems in ECGs that would appear normal to us, and potentially long before the disease fully develops.”
Accuracy and limitations of AI mortality calculators
He AI mortality calculator has demonstrated a significant accuracy rate, correctly identifying the risk of death within ten years of an ECG test in 78% of cases. The system can predict health risks such as heart rhythm problems, heart attacks and heart failure, as well as possible non-heart-related causes of death. “The system can predict future health risks, such as heart rhythm problems, heart attacks and heart failure, as well as when someone would die from a non-heart-related cause. The researchers found that it could predict these risks with a high level of precision,” the researchers noted.
However, while AI death calculators can provide valuable information, they also have notable limitations. These tools typically estimate life expectancy based on data such as age, lifestyle, health conditions, and demographics. However, its accuracy can be compromised by unpredictable factors, including accidents, sudden illnesses, and changes in healthcare that AI cannot foresee.
Furthermore, the effectiveness of these calculators largely depends on the quality and completeness of the training data. They often do not take into account individual variations, emotional factors, and future advances in medicine that could significantly influence longevity. AI kill calculators should therefore be viewed as general guides and not absolute predictions.
AI mortality calculators like AIRE represent a significant advance in healthcare technology, with the potential to improve patient outcomes by identifying health risks earlier. However, they should be used with caution as they cannot provide accurate predictions of individual life expectancy. While these tools can highlight health trends and encourage healthier lifestyles, the complexity of human health goes beyond what any algorithm can predict. The path toward integrating AI into healthcare is ongoing, and as the technology evolves, it will be essential to consider the various factors that impact longevity and well-being.
