If there is an NBA lockout next summer, it will be due to infighting between NBA owners, not a disagreement between owner and player.
At the urging of some owners, the NBA will propose a hard “spending cap” that could replace a luxury tax as part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), according to reports from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and a long time NBA writer Marc Stein on substack (The Associated Press confirmed the story.) While the language is different, that is a strict salary cap, something the NBA has never had.
That will not be a start with the players’ union, something its representatives expressed. From Stein’s newsletter:
League sources say there is a growing push from the various factions on the ownership/league side to push for a system closer to a true hard cap…with a twist. The current proposals, the sources say, don’t actually call it a ceiling, since those words carry such a negative stigma.
“Upper spending limit”, I was told, is the nomenclature in play…
“There will be a lockout,” a player side source told me, “before there is a hard cap.”
Not all owners support this plan, according to reports.
This news comes just about six weeks before the December 15 deadline, when either the players’ union or the NBA (by ownership vote) can opt out of the current CBA, end it on June 30, and possibly establish a summer lockout (the CBA naturally expires in 2024). Negotiations over a new CBA have been ongoing for months between the league and the NBPA, with the hope of reaching an agreement on a new framework before the December deadline.
This move by some of the owners is not driven by rapidly rising player salaries (the split of NBA revenue going to players is locked in and not expected to change in the new CBA), but by the desire of some owners to control the spending of other newer and wealthier owners willing to reach into their pockets and pay the current luxury tax.
For example, the Clippers, owned by former Microsoft executive Steve Ballmer, whose fortune is estimated at more than $75 billion and is one of the 10 richest people on the planet, are prepared to spend $144.7 million on luxury taxes on top of $191.9 million. on payroll this season, which means a total of $336.6 million in salaries and taxes. The Warriors are expected to spend close to $360 million in salaries and taxes this season, and the Nets are expected to be in the same ballpark. For comparison, the Atlanta Hawks rank 15th in the NBA in salary this season at $148.5 million, a number that doesn’t include the luxury tax — Ballmer’s Clippers will more than double that expense once the tax is added in. .
after extending jordan poole Y Andrew WigginsGolden State’s payroll + luxury tax bill for the 2023-24 season is already at $483 million, and that’s without Dramond Green opt-in or strike a new deal with the team, or fill other roster spots, which would push the number north of $500 million. Once again, the Clippers and Nets will be above $350 million in a year, the salary cap is expected to be $134 million (luxury tax starts at $162 million).
It’s a change in ownership seen in other sports, including the NFL. Longtime owners or family estates, like the Buss family with the Los Angeles Lakers, often don’t want to or don’t have the resources to spend at the same level as the wildly wealthy billionaire owners entering the league now. Those new NBA owners are more willing to pay a fancy tax bill and not bat an eye. Add top teams upgrading their training/training facilities and the spending requested of NBA owners is rising rapidly. Don’t cry for these poor owners, they more than make up for the money they lose if franchise values rise rapidly, but now they have to pay a little more out of pocket.
The conventional wisdom has been that there would be no NBA lockout because everyone, owners and players alike, is making too much money and doesn’t want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs (so to speak). The money coming into the league is expected to increase with the new TV/streaming deal in 2025, which is even more reason not to mess with the CBA too much. Which is why, ultimately, there is optimism that this will be resolved without losing games.
But never underestimate the willingness of the rich to fight for money.
